Climate Risk
Academy Releases First Model and Results of Actuaries Climate Risk Index
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As part of its continuing public policy research program providing objective and independent information based on actuarial analysis, the American Academy of Actuaries today introduced the first model and results of the Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI), which provides results associating dollar estimates of property losses in the United States with changes in extreme weather.
The Academy has long been the most reliable and credible source of objective, independent, and nonpartisan information about actuarial matters that can and do affect public policy decisions in the U.S. We are now releasing the ACRI to provide that objective and independent analysis to assist in answering the question: Are the extreme weather conditions that result from a changing climate producing increased property losses?
The findings contained in version 1.0 of the ACRI are the culmination of years of research. We are presenting them now in the spirit of objective, transparent scientific inquiry and statistical rigor. Read the report. (January 9, 2020)
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The Actuaries Climate Index® (ACI) is intended to provide a useful monitoring tool—an objective indicator of the frequency of extreme weather and the extent of sea level change. This website provides graphics and data for download for those who wish to explore the Index. The ACI is available for the United States and Canada and 12 subregions thereof, and will be released when analysis of data for each meteorological season is complete, on both a monthly and a seasonal basis (months ending February, May, August, and November). It was created and is sponsored by the American Academy of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries.
Actuaries Climate Index Five-Year Average Declines
The Actuaries Climate Index’s five-year moving average declined for the first time since 2017 but remains at an elevated level, the latest seasonal data update to the index showed. (June 8, 2021)
Actuaries Climate Index Updated With Summer 2020 Data
The Actuaries Climate Index has been updated with data for summer 2020, with the five-year moving average reaching a new high for the 10th consecutive quarter. (March 4, 2021)
ERM/ORSA Climate Work Group Provides Comments to NAIC on Climate Survey Analysis
The ERM/ORSA Climate-Related Financial Disclosures Work Group submitted comments to the NAIC Climate and Resilience (EX) Task Force's Climate Risk Disclosure Workstream related to ongoing discussions and work on the Climate Risk Disclosure Survey. (March 02, 2021 )
ERM/ORSA Climate Work Group Shares Update to NAIC on Survey Analysis
The ERM/ORSA Climate Risk Disclosures Work Group Chair, Michelle Young, and Academy Assistant Director for Research, Steve Jackson, shared an update to the NAIC Climate Risk and Resiliency (EX) Task Force on the Climate Risk Disclosures Survey Analysis project. (January 27, 2021 )
ERM/ORSA Climate Work Group Submits Comments to IAIS
The ERM/ORSA Committee's Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (CRFD) Work Group submitted comments to the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) on its Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector. (January 11, 2021 )
Actuaries Climate Index Updated With Spring 2020 Data
The Actuaries Climate Index has been updated with data for spring 2020, with its key five-year moving average reaching a new high of 1.19. (December 01, 2020)
Actuaries Climate Index Updated with Winter 2019-20 Data
The Actuaries Climate Index 5-year moving average reached a new high in winter 2019–20, driven by trends of heavy rainfall, sea level, and extreme high and low temperatures. (August 26, 2020)
Data Update to the Actuaries Climate Index
The Actuaries Climate Index has been updated with new quarterly data, revisions to initial data for previous periods, and annually updated values for the index’s drought and sea level components. (May 27, 2020)
Actuaries Climate Index Updated with Summer 2019 Data
The ACI’s five-year moving average reached a new high for the sixth consecutive quarter, according to the latest data release that includes summer 2019. (February 27, 2020)
ERM/ORSA Committee Submits Comments to IAIS on Climate-Related Disclosures
The ERM/ORSA Committee submitted comments to the International Association of Insurance Supervisors' (IAIS) Issues Paper on the Implementation of the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures ("TCFD Recommendations"). (February 05, 2020 )
Actuaries Climate Index Updated With Spring 2019 Data
The Actuaries Climate Index has been updated with data through spring 2019. For the fifth consecutive quarter, the index’s five-year moving average has set a new high; five-year averages for three ACI components hit new highs as well. (November 21, 2019)
Actuaries Climate Index Winter 2018–19 Data Released
The Academy and co-sponsoring U.S. and Canadian organizations have updated the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) with data from the winter of 2018–19, contributing to an upward trend in the average ACI value for winter. Taking the new data into account, the average of the last five winter ACI values was higher than the average for the five winters ending in 2017–18. (August 29, 2019)
Academy Speakers Describe Actuaries Climate Index
Academy representatives describe the Actuaries Climate Index and the proposed Actuaries Climate Risk Index at a meeting of Casualty Actuaries of Greater New York. (May 23, 2019)
Actuaries Climate Index Fall 2018 Data Released Using Improved Methodology
The latest Actuaries Climate Index data, updated for fall 2018 using an improved methodology, show that the previously reported upward trend in the key five-year moving average ACI metric continues. (May 07, 2019)
Actuaries Climate Index Winter 2017–18 Data Released
The five-year moving average of the Academy-co-sponsored Actuaries Climate Index™ (ACI) rose to a record 1.23 for winter 2017–18, compared with 1.19 in fall 2017, according to data released this week. The seasonal ACI value was 1.08, compared with 2.00 in the fall. (November 14, 2018)
Actuaries Climate Index Fall 2017 Data Released
With the fall 2017 data, the five-year moving average of the Actuaries Climate Index reached 1.19, a new record. The seasonal Actuaries Climate Index value increased to 2.00 in fall 2017, from the previous level of 1.59. (July 31, 2018)
Comment Letter on Climate Change Risks to Insurers
Comment letter from Senior Casualty Fellow Kevin Ryan to the International Association of Insurance Supervisors on climate change risks to the insurance sector. (April 26, 2018)
Actuaries Climate Index Summer 2017 Data Released
The seasonal ACI value for summer 2017 dipped to 1.45 from 1.66 in spring 2017, but remained at a high level, while the five-year moving average was unchanged. (April 23, 2018)
Presentation to NAIC on ACI and ACRI
Presentation to the NAIC Climate Change and Global Warming (C) Working Group on the Actuaries Climate Index and the Actuaries Climate Risk Index. (March 24, 2018)
Actuaries Climate Index™ Spring 2017 Data Released
It was the seventh consecutive season with an elevated seasonal value of above 1.5 while the five-year moving average remained at the high set in winter 2016-17, driven by sea level changes in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions. (January 17, 2018)
Actuaries Climate Index Data Released for Winter 2016-17
Quarterly ACI data released today show extreme weather events continue to increase across Canada and the United States, with the index value reaching a new high in winter 2016-17. (October 05, 2017)
Actuaries Climate Index Data for Fall 2016 Released
The Actuaries Climate Index value for fall 2016 was 2.07, the highest seasonal level recorded for the United States and Canada combined. High temperatures in Northwest and Southwest Pacific Region were behind the increase. (June 28, 2017)
Presentation on Actuaries Climate Index to Federal Officials
Academy Senior Casualty Fellow Jim MacGinnitie presented the Actuaries Climate Index and Actuaries Climate Risk Index to the Inter-Agency Forum on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations meeting at NASA headquarters in Washington. (March 16, 2017)
Latest ACI Data Show Third-Highest Level on Record
The Academy and other actuarial organizations in the United States and Canada updated the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) for spring and summer 2016, which reached the third-highest seasonal level recorded with a value of 1.72. The five-year moving average stands at 1.03. (March 7, 2017)
Actuaries Climate Index Released
The Academy and other actuarial organizations in the United States and Canada—the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries—launched the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) this week, which provides a quarterly gauge of changes in extreme weather events and sea levels.
“A lot of people have worked diligently over the past several years to produce the ACI, and we thank them for that,” said Academy President Bob Beuerlein. “This will be a very useful tool for actuaries, public policymakers, and the public that we will be able to utilize in the coming years.”
The ACI looks at the continental United States, Alaska, and Canada, with higher index values indicating an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events. Based on historical data drawn from scientific sources, the latest index values confirm a sustained increase in the incidence of extreme events, such as high temperature, high winds, heavy precipitation, and drought. (November 30, 2016)
Presentation to CIPR on Actuaries Climate Index
Presentation at NAIC’s Center for Insurance Policy and Research (CIPR) Symposium on “Implications for Increasing Catastrophe Volatility on Insurers and Consumers” that updates progress on the development of an Actuaries Climate Index and Actuaries Climate Risk Index. (October 07, 2014)
Presentation to NAIC on Actuaries Climate Index
Presentation to the NAIC’s Climate Change and Global Warming Working Group on the development of an Actuaries Climate Index and Actuaries Climate Risk Index. (August 17, 2014)
