Actuaries Climate Index down again in latest five-year average
Winter 2020-21 data update lowers index benchmark for the second consecutive quarter
Washington, D.C., Arlington, VA, Schaumburg, IL, and Ottawa, ON (Sept. 14, 2021)––The winter 2020–21 data release of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) (actuariesclimateindex.org), which provides objective measures of specific and aggregate changes in climate extremes and sea level across Canada and the U.S., shows a second consecutive small decline in the index’s five-year moving average and now sits at 1.19 points above the ACI reference period.
“The decline does not change the overall results that the ACI’s measures of climate extremes have been consistently occurring at well above the rate seen from 1961 to 1990. Periods of downward movement should be expected in the Actuaries Climate Index. Small movements reflect inherent climate variability,” says Doug Collins, chair of the Climate Index Working Group.
One factor behind the small decline in the five-year average was the new seasonal value reflected in this data release for the winter 2020–21 period. “The seasonal value for the winter 2020–21 period is 0.54, which is relatively low compared to seasonal values in recent years, some of which have been much larger. The lower seasonal value is mainly due to less frequent well-above average temperatures, precipitation, and wind,” says Collins.
The Actuaries Climate Index is based on analysis of seasonal data from neutral, scientific sources for six index components collected since 1961. The index measures changes in these components for the United States and Canada combined and by region. Combining six components over a five-year measurement period, the index’s moving average smooths out monthly and seasonal fluctuations for a meaningful measurement of long-term climate trends.
The index, sponsored by the American Academy of Actuaries, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries, is designed to provide actuaries, public policymakers, and the general public with objective data about changes in the frequency of extreme climate conditions over recent decades.
Updated values are posted quarterly on ActuariesClimateIndex.org as data for each meteorological season become available.
About the Sponsoring Organizations
The American Academy of Actuaries is a 19,500-member professional association whose mission is to serve the public and the U.S. actuarial profession. For more than 50 years, the Academy has assisted public policymakers on all levels by providing leadership, objective expertise, and actuarial advice on risk and financial security issues. The Academy also sets qualification, practice, and professionalism standards for actuaries in the United States.
The Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) is the national, bilingual organization and voice of the actuarial profession in Canada. Our more than 6,000 members are dedicated to providing actuarial services and advice of the highest quality. The Institute holds the duty of the profession to the public above the needs of the profession and its members.
The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a leading international organization for credentialing and professional education. Founded in 1914, the CAS is the world’s only actuarial organization focused exclusively on property and casualty risks and serves over 9,000 members worldwide. Professionals educated by the CAS empower business and government to make well-informed strategic, financial and operational decisions.
With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world’s largest actuarial professional organization with more than 32,000 actuaries as members. Through research and education, the SOA’s mission is to advance actuarial knowledge and to enhance the ability of actuaries to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for financial, business and societal challenges. The SOA’s vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals in the measurement and management of risk.