Actuaries Climate Index Updates for Spring-Summer 2016
Washington, D.C., Arlington, VA, Schaumburg, IL, and Ottawa, ON (March 7, 2017) – Today, organizations representing the actuarial profession in Canada and the United States updated the Actuaries Climate Index, an objective, quarterly measure of changes in extreme weather frequency and sea level, available online at ActuariesClimateIndex.org. For the United States and Canada combined, the Actuaries Climate Index value for summer 2016 was 1.72, the third-highest seasonal level recorded.
The Actuaries Climate Index is based on an analysis of quarterly seasonal data for six different index components collected from 1961 to summer 2016, compared to the 30-year reference period of 1961 to 1990. The current five-year moving average for the index is 1.03.
“We have now seen three of the last four seasons having an Actuaries Climate Index value over 1.50, compared to the 30-year reference period, which had no index values above 1.00. The spring and summer 2016 data reflect a continued pattern of increased frequencies of high temperatures and precipitation, and of lower-temperature extremes, compared to the reference period,” said Doug Collins, chair of the Climate Change Committee. “We collected this data from neutral, scientific sources, and our members—actuaries—have developed these evidence-based results on extreme weather events.”
The current highest five-year average values by region are in Northwest Pacific (British Columbia and Yukon Territory), Northeast Atlantic (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island) and Southern Plains (Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming). The high values in these regions are driven primarily by high temperatures and rising sea levels.
The Actuaries Climate Index was developed by the Climate Change Committee, which was formed from a partnership of the American Academy of Actuaries, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries. The index is designed to provide actuaries, public policymakers, and the general public with objective data about changes in the frequency of extreme climate events over recent decades. The index measures changes in extremes of high and low temperatures, high winds, heavy precipitation, and drought, as well as changes in sea level.
Updates for values will be posted quarterly on ActuariesClimateIndex.org as data for each meteorological season becomes available. The organizations are also developing a second index, the Actuaries Climate Risk Index, to measure correlations between changes in the frequency of extreme events as measured by the index and economic losses, mortality, and injuries.
About the Sponsoring Organizations
The American Academy of Actuaries is a 19,000-member professional association whose mission is to serve the public and the U.S. actuarial profession. For more than 50 years, the Academy has assisted public policymakers on all levels by providing leadership, objective expertise, and actuarial advice on risk and financial security issues. The Academy also sets qualification, practice, and professionalism standards for actuaries in the United States.
The Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) is the national organization and voice of the actuarial profession. The Institute is dedicated to serving the public through the provision, by the profession, of actuarial services and advice of the highest quality. In fact, the Institute holds the duty of the profession to the public above the needs of the profession and its members.
The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a leading international organization for credentialing and professional education. Founded in 1914, the CAS is the world’s only actuarial organization focused exclusively on property and casualty risks and serves over 7,000 members worldwide. Professionals educated by the CAS empower business and government to make well-informed strategic, financial and operational decisions.
With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world’s largest actuarial professional organization with more than 27,000 actuaries as members. Through research and education, the SOA’s mission is to advance actuarial knowledge and to enhance the ability of actuaries to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for financial, business and societal challenges. The SOA’s vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals in the measurement and management of risk.